diff --git a/scripts/lib/didAnyPackageChange.ts b/scripts/lib/didAnyPackageChange.ts
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..b51ea7fb2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/lib/didAnyPackageChange.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,84 @@
+import { writeFileSync } from 'fs'
+import tar from 'tar'
+import tmp from 'tmp'
+import { exec } from './exec'
+import { PackageDetails, getAllPackageDetails } from './publishing'
+
+async function hasPackageChanged(pkg: PackageDetails) {
+	const dir = tmp.dirSync({ unsafeCleanup: true })
+	const dirPath = dir.name
+	try {
+		const version = pkg.version
+
+		const unscopedName = pkg.name.replace('@tldraw/', '')
+		const url = `https://registry.npmjs.org/${pkg.name}/-/${unscopedName}-${version}.tgz`
+		const res = await fetch(url)
+		if (res.status >= 400) {
+			throw new Error(`Package not found at url ${url}: ${res.status}`)
+		}
+		const publishedTarballPath = `${dirPath}/published-package.tgz`
+		writeFileSync(publishedTarballPath, Buffer.from(await res.arrayBuffer()))
+		const publishedManifest = await getTarballManifest(publishedTarballPath)
+
+		const localTarballPath = `${dirPath}/local-package.tgz`
+		await exec('yarn', ['pack', '--out', localTarballPath], { pwd: pkg.dir })
+
+		const localManifest = await getTarballManifest(localTarballPath)
+
+		return !manifestsAreEqual(publishedManifest, localManifest)
+	} finally {
+		dir.removeCallback()
+	}
+}
+
+function manifestsAreEqual(a: Record<string, Buffer>, b: Record<string, Buffer>) {
+	const aKeys = Object.keys(a)
+	const bKeys = Object.keys(b)
+	if (aKeys.length !== bKeys.length) {
+		return false
+	}
+	for (const key of aKeys) {
+		if (!bKeys.includes(key)) {
+			return false
+		}
+		if (!a[key].equals(b[key])) {
+			return false
+		}
+	}
+	return true
+}
+
+function getTarballManifest(tarballPath: string): Promise<Record<string, Buffer>> {
+	const manifest: Record<string, Buffer> = {}
+	return new Promise((resolve, reject) =>
+		tar.list(
+			{
+				// @ts-expect-error bad typings
+				file: tarballPath,
+				onentry: (entry) => {
+					entry.on('data', (data) => {
+						// we could hash these to reduce memory but it's probably fine
+						manifest[entry.path] = data
+					})
+				},
+			},
+			(err: any) => {
+				if (err) {
+					reject(err)
+				} else {
+					resolve(manifest)
+				}
+			}
+		)
+	)
+}
+
+export async function didAnyPackageChange() {
+	const details = getAllPackageDetails()
+	for (const pkg of Object.values(details)) {
+		if (await hasPackageChanged(pkg)) {
+			return true
+		}
+	}
+	return false
+}
diff --git a/scripts/package.json b/scripts/package.json
index 7d950bc6f..e1bf07393 100644
--- a/scripts/package.json
+++ b/scripts/package.json
@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@
 		"@aws-sdk/lib-storage": "^3.440.0",
 		"@types/is-ci": "^3.0.0",
 		"@types/node": "~20.11",
-		"@types/tar": "^6.1.7",
+		"@types/tar": "^6.1.11",
 		"@typescript-eslint/utils": "^5.59.0",
 		"ast-types": "^0.14.2",
 		"cross-fetch": "^3.1.5",
@@ -56,8 +56,10 @@
 	"dependencies": {
 		"@octokit/rest": "^20.0.2",
 		"@types/minimist": "^1.2.5",
+		"@types/tmp": "^0.2.6",
 		"ignore": "^5.2.4",
 		"minimist": "^1.2.8",
-		"tar": "^6.2.0"
+		"tar": "^6.2.0",
+		"tmp": "^0.2.3"
 	}
 }
diff --git a/scripts/publish-new.ts b/scripts/publish-new.ts
index 41f212003..5dc619e90 100644
--- a/scripts/publish-new.ts
+++ b/scripts/publish-new.ts
@@ -125,6 +125,7 @@ async function main() {
 	if (!isPrerelease) {
 		const { major, minor } = parse(nextVersion)!
 		await exec('git', ['push', 'origin', `${gitTag}:refs/heads/v${major}.${minor}.x`])
+		await exec('git', ['push', 'origin', `${gitTag}:docs-production`, `--force`])
 	}
 
 	// create a release on github
diff --git a/scripts/publish-patch.ts b/scripts/publish-patch.ts
index 848573d55..53592ef56 100644
--- a/scripts/publish-patch.ts
+++ b/scripts/publish-patch.ts
@@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ import fetch from 'cross-fetch'
 import glob from 'glob'
 import { assert } from 'node:console'
 import { appendFileSync } from 'node:fs'
+import { didAnyPackageChange } from './lib/didAnyPackageChange'
 import { exec } from './lib/exec'
 import { generateAutoRcFile } from './lib/labels'
 import { nicelog } from './lib/nicelog'
@@ -41,6 +42,17 @@ async function main() {
 		return
 	}
 
+	if (isLatestVersion) {
+		await exec('git', ['push', 'origin', `HEAD:docs-production`, '--force'])
+	}
+
+	// Skip releasing a new version if the package contents are identical.
+	// This may happen when cherry-picking docs-only changes.
+	if (!(await didAnyPackageChange())) {
+		nicelog('No packages have changed, skipping release')
+		return
+	}
+
 	nicelog('Releasing version', nextVersion)
 
 	await setAllVersions(nextVersion)
diff --git a/scripts/vercel/should-build-docs.sh b/scripts/vercel/should-build-docs.sh
new file mode 100755
index 000000000..a84166624
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/vercel/should-build-docs.sh
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env bash
+set -eux
+
+if [[ "$VERCEL_ENV" == "production" ]] ; then
+  echo "Always build on production";
+  exit 1;
+fi
+
+## main is not production anymore, but we still always want to build it
+if [[ "$VERCEL_GIT_COMMIT_REF" == "main" ]] ; then
+  echo "Always build on main";
+  exit 1;
+fi
+
+## on PR builds, only rebuild if the docs directory changed
+git diff HEAD^ HEAD --quiet ./apps/docs
+
diff --git a/yarn.lock b/yarn.lock
index 22803447b..f7f57330c 100644
--- a/yarn.lock
+++ b/yarn.lock
@@ -7351,7 +7351,8 @@ __metadata:
     "@types/is-ci": "npm:^3.0.0"
     "@types/minimist": "npm:^1.2.5"
     "@types/node": "npm:~20.11"
-    "@types/tar": "npm:^6.1.7"
+    "@types/tar": "npm:^6.1.11"
+    "@types/tmp": "npm:^0.2.6"
     "@typescript-eslint/utils": "npm:^5.59.0"
     ast-types: "npm:^0.14.2"
     cross-fetch: "npm:^3.1.5"
@@ -7370,6 +7371,7 @@ __metadata:
     semver: "npm:^7.3.8"
     svgo: "npm:^3.0.2"
     tar: "npm:^6.2.0"
+    tmp: "npm:^0.2.3"
     typescript: "npm:^5.3.3"
   languageName: unknown
   linkType: soft
@@ -8212,13 +8214,13 @@ __metadata:
   languageName: node
   linkType: hard
 
-"@types/tar@npm:^6.1.7":
-  version: 6.1.10
-  resolution: "@types/tar@npm:6.1.10"
+"@types/tar@npm:^6.1.11":
+  version: 6.1.11
+  resolution: "@types/tar@npm:6.1.11"
   dependencies:
     "@types/node": "npm:*"
     minipass: "npm:^4.0.0"
-  checksum: da525415a9bac9e81a1498d0b684dd7fa34f69a8568b54ab19660e99d5e7dcdeb2527a40059e1cfc697fe4bbcc18cd03a50c96356d84ab865345c2c48a9d88f6
+  checksum: 0d54b8acbd7d2fc43bd1097eef5058604a6b0e3a394cf485038303ca3ef39ecb42451c7dc5a2b9b18420e137ef5b2c76ec504e94c2f45010b2c8e8c3a49d9de7
   languageName: node
   linkType: hard
 
@@ -8231,6 +8233,13 @@ __metadata:
   languageName: node
   linkType: hard
 
+"@types/tmp@npm:^0.2.6":
+  version: 0.2.6
+  resolution: "@types/tmp@npm:0.2.6"
+  checksum: e14a094c10569d3b56805552b21417860ef21060d969000d5d5b53604a78c2bdac216f064b03797d4b07a081e0141dd3ab22bc36923e75300eb1c023f7252cc7
+  languageName: node
+  linkType: hard
+
 "@types/tough-cookie@npm:*":
   version: 4.0.5
   resolution: "@types/tough-cookie@npm:4.0.5"
@@ -21513,7 +21522,7 @@ __metadata:
   languageName: node
   linkType: hard
 
-"rimraf@npm:^3.0.0, rimraf@npm:^3.0.2":
+"rimraf@npm:^3.0.2":
   version: 3.0.2
   resolution: "rimraf@npm:3.0.2"
   dependencies:
@@ -23015,12 +23024,10 @@ __metadata:
   languageName: node
   linkType: hard
 
-"tmp@npm:^0.2.1":
-  version: 0.2.1
-  resolution: "tmp@npm:0.2.1"
-  dependencies:
-    rimraf: "npm:^3.0.0"
-  checksum: 445148d72df3ce99356bc89a7857a0c5c3b32958697a14e50952c6f7cf0a8016e746ababe9a74c1aa52f04c526661992f14659eba34d3c6701d49ba2f3cf781b
+"tmp@npm:^0.2.1, tmp@npm:^0.2.3":
+  version: 0.2.3
+  resolution: "tmp@npm:0.2.3"
+  checksum: 7b13696787f159c9754793a83aa79a24f1522d47b87462ddb57c18ee93ff26c74cbb2b8d9138f571d2e0e765c728fb2739863a672b280528512c6d83d511c6fa
   languageName: node
   linkType: hard